The war in Ukraine has now surpassed the milestone of 1,000 days, a period marked by devastation, resilience, and geopolitical upheaval. This seemingly endless conflict has reshaped the world’s understanding of 21st-century warfare, exposing the fragile balance of global security, the endurance of the Ukrainian people, and the profound ripple effects far beyond Eastern Europe.
The roots of the war trace back to 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea following Ukraine’s Maidan Revolution, which ousted a pro-Russian president. This annexation, coupled with the Kremlin’s backing of separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, set the stage for a simmering conflict. On 24 February 2022, Russia escalated from hybrid warfare to a full-scale invasion, with Putin announcing a “special military operation”, declaring war on Ukraine, citing claims of “denazification” and “protecting Russian-speaking Ukrainians” to justify it.
The early days of the war saw swift advances by Russian forces, but they were met with extraordinary resistance by the Ukrainian people, led by President Volodymyr Zelensky who famously declared ‘I need ammunition, not a ride’ after offers of evacuation. A profound sense of national identity drove people to fight against Russian aggression. However, after two years of brutal conflict that same determination, hope and will to fight has been difficult to maintain. In 2022, 73% of Ukrainians believed Ukraine should continue fighting until it wins the war. Now, after tens of thousands of civilians have been killed and entire cities lie in ruins, that number has dropped to just 32%. What’s more popular is the desire to seek to negotiate an ending to the war as soon as possible, with many open to territorial concessions as part of a peace deal. On the other side, Russia has lost a staggering number of soldiers, between 462,000 and 728,000 since the start of the war.
The suffering of civilians and the deaths of countless soldiers ultimately fuels the desire for peace negotiations, however the path to peace is marked with several challenges. Perhaps the most obvious is the territorial disputes, with Ukraine insisting on reclaiming all occupied territories including Crimea, but Russia being unwilling to be left with nothing after so much loss. Compromise is central to any peace agreement. Secondly, the war is seen as not just a country attacking its neighbour, but a proxy war, a struggle between NATO’s unwavering support for Ukraine and Russia’s fear of NATO at its doorstep if Ukraine is given NATO membership. Without the promise that Ukraine will remain neutral and not join NATO, the fear of NATO expansion will remain, and so any resolution must address these broader geopolitical tensions in order to maintain peace for many years to come. Furthermore, due to western imposed sanctions, Russia has effectively been financially isolated, with several major Russian banks being cut off from the SWIFT international payment system and approximately half of Russia’s foreign currency reserves being frozen. Offering Russia a phased lifting of sanctions could incentivise cooperation.
Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential election puts the future of the war into question. At a CNN town hall in May 2023, the President elect said: “They’re dying, Russians and Ukrainians. I want them to stop dying. And I’ll have that done — I’ll have that done in 24 hours.” Whilst Trump’s claims provide hope, if incredibly cautious due to both the complexities of the war and Trump’s unpredictability, the path to peace in Ukraine will not be linear, nor will it satisfy all parties. Any resolution will require compromises as well as persistent diplomacy and a willingness to cooperate. The cost of continued conflict, both economically and lives lost, is too great to bear indefinitely.
