Texas, a land where God, guns, and gas reign supreme, embodies the spirit of American conservatism and patriotism. However, beneath its bold exterior, the political landscape is changing, and experts predict that the deep-red Texas we know today may soon be a thing of the past. So, how did Texas become a Republican stronghold, and what does the future hold for Democrats in the Lone Star State?
The politics of Texas is frequently misunderstood, with many non-Texans assuming the belief that Texas has always been and forever will be a Republican stronghold when in fact, until the 1990s, Texas was the breeding ground of some of America’s most progressive figures. Among them was President Lyndon B. Johnson whose legacy includes landmark achievements such as the Civil Rights Act, the Voting Rights Act, Medicare, and the Great Society. Alongside him, Democratic Texas Senator Ralph Yarborough emerged as a prominent figure in the Civil Rights movement and vocally opposed the Vietnam War. Additionally, Governor Ann Richards, who made history as Texas’s first female Governor when she was elected in 1991, was recognised for her appointments of women and minorities to significant roles in her administration and progressive reforms to law enforcement and education, earning her acclaim both within Texas and nationwide.
However, Texas’ democratic stronghold status was not
permanent, and many factors contributed to its decline in progressivism, the
most significant being Richard Nixon’s ‘southern strategy’ in his 1968
Presidential campaign. Following the dismantling of Jim Crow and the many
advancements to Civil Rights made by JFK and LBJ, racial tensions were rampant
in the South and the Republicans utilised these tensions by campaigning on
divisive rhetoric designed to prey on the racial fears and deep-rooted prejudices
of white Southerners. In fact, President Johnson famously stated after signing
the Civil Rights Act that the Democrats had “lost the South for a
generation.” LBJ’s prediction was largely correct as, over the course of
the next decade, Democratic support in the South largely eroded away and, from
1980 onwards, the South had taken on a largely Republican political identity.
However, following this, Texas found itself in a state of political limbo, consistently supporting Republican candidates in Presidential elections while, at state level, democratic candidates continued to achieve electoral success until the mid-90s. Nevertheless, in the 2000s, another surge of republicanism swept through Texas, driven by significant political polarisation over issues such as gun rights, and Republican gerrymandering orchestrated by Representative Tom DeLay in the 2000s. Yet, the progressive spirit of Texas has not been eradicated but merely contained as political scientists predict a substantial shift in Texas’s political landscape within the coming years.
For example, cracks in the state’s deep-red façade began to show in 2018, in Texas’s closest senatorial race in four years. Beto O’Rourke, the Texas Democrat’s nomination for Senator, was a largely unknown congressman from El Paso. Going up against incumbent Senator Ted Cruz, many democrats across the state felt that his nomination was a mistake due to his lack of reputation. However, Beto managed to do the unthinkable. During his campaign, he visited all 254 Texas counties (even though the majority of voters live in less than a dozen) whilst livestreaming his time on the campaign trail not only during Town Halls but also whilst doing his laundry and skateboarding. O’Rourke was determined to radically change the way Democrats campaigned and he wanted to introduce himself to the public in a way no candidate in the state had ever tried. These unorthodox methods were largely a success, earning him large crowds wherever he went and 80 million dollars-worth of donations whilst his opponent, Ted Cruz, raised less than half of that sum. Whilst the Republicans reclaimed victory and Ted Cruz maintained his seat in Congress, O’Rourke fell just 2% short, an unheard-of success for the Texas Democratic party and a commendable fight.
O’Rourke’s close campaign, and his continued popularity as a political figure, represent the instability of Republican leadership and how the progressive spirit of the state is not dead, but merely dormant, waiting for another charismatic and personable democrat like O’Rourke to enter the political arena.
So could, the shift towards a blue Texas be on the horizon? Thanks to the state’s low taxes and relatively affordable cost of living, a significant number of Americans, particularly from states like California and New York, have been relocating to Texas in large numbers. In 2022 alone, approximately 100,000 Californians made the move, making the state the leading contributor to Texas’ net population growth. Due to these being predominantly blue states, the democratic voter base in Texas is actively increasing thanks to this internal migration. Also, as the children of migrants, especially those from Mexico and Central/South America, reach voting age, Texas Democrats have observed a growth in their voter base. This new generation of Hispanic American voters generally favours progressive candidates, which has bolstered support for the Democratic Party.
Therefore, whilst Texas may still be deemed a Republican powerhouse, change is on the horizon and their substantial influence is increasingly unstable. Though it is likely that Texas will continue to go red during presidential elections for many years to come, the chances of a Democratic candidate winning the position of senator of governor are higher than they have been in the past two decades and demographic changes may soon undo all the Republicans efforts at maintaining their control.
