Every election year in the United States, the democrats ask the age-old question, “Can we win Texas?” And every election cycle for the past 30 years, they’ve failed. But, in this year’s Texas Senate Race, with a strong democratic candidate and a divided Republican party, the democrats are optimistic that Texas is finally in play. So, is Talarico the candidate the Texas Democrats have been waiting for to finally flip Texas? Or will this be yet another close but devastating loss for the democrats in this deep red state?
Why are Texas Democrats particularly optimistic?
At the start of March, Texan democrats and republicans went to the polls to select their parties’ nominations to fight each other for a seat in the Senate this November, as well as for a variety of other statewide positions. For the democratic nomination, State Representative James Talarico won with 52.4% of the vote while his opponent, Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, won just 46.2%.
Among Republicans, however, the nomination was too close to be called. Texas law requires that a candidate earn over 50% of the vote to win the nomination and, since neither incumbent Senator John Cornyn nor his opponent Ken Paxton achieved this, they must face another election in May.
This has led to a surge in optimism among Texas democrats, as the Republican runoff election gives them more time to campaign and will increase divisions between the republican party as the candidates and their supporters rip each other apart in the coming months.
What are the weaknesses of the Republican candidates?
One aspect of this Senate race that is particularly advantageous for the democrats is the ideological split in the republican party. The incumbent candidate, John Cornyn, has represented Texas in the Senate since 2002. He represents the ‘old guard’ of the Republican party, labelled as a Bush-era moderate for his focus on border security, lower taxes, reducing federal spending, and gun rights, but has been significantly less involved in the ‘culture wars’ waged by many republicans in recent years. This has put him at odds with Trump and MAGA on multiple occasions, with many MAGA Texans disliking him for not being conservative enough.
On the other hand, Ken Paxton, the attorney general of Texas running to unseat him has his own slew of controversies. Whilst favoured by the MAGA crowd for his far-right stances, Paxton is plagued by scandal, having been indicted for securities fraud charges in 2015, accused of bribery and abuse of office in 2020, and in 2023, he was impeached by the Republican-dominated Texas House of Representatives. For these reasons, many Texas republicans are hesitant to vote for him, but the hard-line MAGA crowd continues to support Paxton’s candidacy due to his unwavering support for Trump and far-right values.
Texas democrats hope that the intense ideological divide between these candidates and their supporters will result in widespread discontent, no matter who wins the nomination, resulting in a low republican voter turnout and thus potential for a democratic victory. But, democrats currently would prefer Paxton winning the nomination, as his hard-line views and history of controversies are off-putting for many centrist and moderate republican voters, who democratic candidate Talarico is hoping to attract.
Who is democratic nominee James Talarico, and why are democrats so excited about his candidacy?
Talarico is an Austin native, growing up in the suburb of Round Rock. He studied Government at the University of Texas at Austin (hook ‘em!) before getting a master’s in education from Harvard. He went on to teach middle school English language in a low-income, Hispanic majority neighbourhood of San Antonio, which he states taught him the importance of education, joining the Public Education Committee in the Texas legislature.
What is probably most notable about Talarico, though, is his grounding in Christianity. His grandfather was a Baptist preacher in South Texas and, while a member of the Texas House of Representatives, earned his Master of Divinity at Austin Presbyterian Theological Seminary. Unlike many other Southern Christian politicians, though, Talarico uses scripture to support his progressive stances on issues like abortion, universal healthcare, LGBTQ+ rights, and welfare.
In addition, instead of running a strictly partisan campaign, Talarico has instead adopted “top vs bottom” messaging, targeting millionaires and appealing to working Texans through a policy agenda rooted in health-care affordability, education reform and funding, and tackling corruption, a tactic reminiscent of the Mamdani campaign during the New York mayoral election, which led to his decisive victory.
So, by running a candidate that subverts the traditional idea of a ‘democrat’ as a man of faith focusing his campaign on improving the everyday lives of ordinary Texans, the democrats hope to win over moderates and independent voters, as well as republicans who feel isolated and disillusioned by Trump and the MAGA republicans in Texas.
So, can Talarico flip Texas blue?
Well, for now I don’t know. We still don’t know who his republican opponent will be. If incumbent John Cornyn wins the republican nomination over Ken Paxton, he’ll have a bit more of a struggle, but either way, it’s still possible. Talarico has made gains on both Cornyn and Paxton in the polls in recent weeks. In the most recent polls, Talarico has a lead on both Paxton and Cornyn, albeit only by a few percentage points. So, while I can’t definitively tell you that Texas will turn blue this November, I will say this may be the closest the Democrats have gotten in years to winning the state and Texas is definitely up for grabs, the question now is can Talarico use his campaign advantage to win enough bipartisan support to secure victory? Time will tell.
